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I think that the Fed might view the latest decline in the dollar exchange as substituting for the stimulus that would otherwise would be supplied from a Federal Reserve rate cut, - John Lonski Quotes

I think that the Fed might view the latest decline in the dollar exchange as substituting for the stimulus that would otherwise would be supplied from a Federal Reserve rate cut,

If the Fed only (cuts by half a percentage point), it risks putting downward pressure on equity prices, ... The Fed is dealing with the unknown of how much more pervasive stock ownership is today. - John Lonski Quotes

If the Fed only (cuts by half a percentage point), it risks putting downward pressure on equity prices, ... The Fed is dealing with the unknown of how much more pervasive stock ownership is today.

When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear. - John Lonski Quotes

When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear.

Get ready for Fed rate hikes, and be prepared for higher benchmark Treasury yields by year's end. - John Lonski Quotes

Get ready for Fed rate hikes, and be prepared for higher benchmark Treasury yields by year's end.

Unless there is some indication of a much higher-than-expected rate of inflation or an economy much stronger than realized, the Fed will probably lift fed funds by no more than 25 basis points in June. - John Lonski Quotes

Unless there is some indication of a much higher-than-expected rate of inflation or an economy much stronger than realized, the Fed will probably lift fed funds by no more than 25 basis points in June.

[Greenspan] believes that the economy will be brisk enough to require more in the way of rate hikes if inflation is to be contained. At the same time, the Fed must be careful not to tighten so aggressively so that it does not risk bursting regional home price bubbles. - John Lonski Quotes

[Greenspan] believes that the economy will be brisk enough to require more in the way of rate hikes if inflation is to be contained. At the same time, the Fed must be careful not to tighten so aggressively so that it does not risk bursting regional home price bubbles.

There is no better mix for the housing outlook than to have benchmark Treasury yields decline amid an improving employment situation, ... So I think it's going to be a better than expected year for housing. - John Lonski Quotes

There is no better mix for the housing outlook than to have benchmark Treasury yields decline amid an improving employment situation, ... So I think it's going to be a better than expected year for housing.

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth. - John Lonski Quotes

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

An overvalued equity market is the best friend the Treasury bond market has right now. - John Lonski Quotes

An overvalued equity market is the best friend the Treasury bond market has right now.

He was not especially gloomy about long-term economic prospects, - John Lonski Quotes

He was not especially gloomy about long-term economic prospects,

We could approach (a yield of) 6-1/2 percent (on the 30-year bond) if the employment cost index ends up on the high side. - John Lonski Quotes

We could approach (a yield of) 6-1/2 percent (on the 30-year bond) if the employment cost index ends up on the high side.

It gives the Federal Reserve more leeway to cut rates. But I don't believe that a BOJ rate cut means that a Fed rate cut impends. - John Lonski Quotes

It gives the Federal Reserve more leeway to cut rates. But I don't believe that a BOJ rate cut means that a Fed rate cut impends.

We had a bit of a relief rally. And perhaps there's the sense that the Fed is finished for now. - John Lonski Quotes

We had a bit of a relief rally. And perhaps there's the sense that the Fed is finished for now.

I wouldn't be especially concerned about a major episode of financial distress resulting from the recent and forthcoming Fed rate hikes. I don't think it would be enough to cause pain -- unless you have people managing financial institutions being very reckless in their oversight of the situation. - John Lonski Quotes

I wouldn't be especially concerned about a major episode of financial distress resulting from the recent and forthcoming Fed rate hikes. I don't think it would be enough to cause pain -- unless you have people managing financial institutions being very reckless in their oversight of the situation.

Largely because of the hunkering down related to this Iraq uncertainty, - John Lonski Quotes

Largely because of the hunkering down related to this Iraq uncertainty,

Iraq

The surprise is that the current account deficit narrowed for a third consecutive quarter. It's still a big deficit relative to GDP. - John Lonski Quotes

The surprise is that the current account deficit narrowed for a third consecutive quarter. It's still a big deficit relative to GDP.

The year-over-year gain of 1.7 percent reinforces the sense that the current series of Fed rate hikes is nearly finished. - John Lonski Quotes

The year-over-year gain of 1.7 percent reinforces the sense that the current series of Fed rate hikes is nearly finished.

He'll want to do whatever is necessary to counter this exaggerated image of 'Helicopter Ben'. That means he doesn't want to show weakness in regards to enemy No. 1, and that's price inflation. - John Lonski Quotes

He'll want to do whatever is necessary to counter this exaggerated image of 'Helicopter Ben'. That means he doesn't want to show weakness in regards to enemy No. 1, and that's price inflation.

It gives the Federal Reserve more leeway to cut rates, ... But I don't believe that a BOJ rate cut means that a Fed rate cut impends. - John Lonski Quotes

It gives the Federal Reserve more leeway to cut rates, ... But I don't believe that a BOJ rate cut means that a Fed rate cut impends.

This largely explains why the credit market shrugged the number off. And the LEI up three-tenths (of a percentage point) shows the economy isn't in danger of slowing anytime soon. - John Lonski Quotes

This largely explains why the credit market shrugged the number off. And the LEI up three-tenths (of a percentage point) shows the economy isn't in danger of slowing anytime soon.

This largely explains why the credit market shrugged the number off, ... And the LEI up three-tenths (of a percentage point) shows the economy isn't in danger of slowing anytime soon. - John Lonski Quotes

This largely explains why the credit market shrugged the number off, ... And the LEI up three-tenths (of a percentage point) shows the economy isn't in danger of slowing anytime soon.

It was a very important lesson for investors to learn. For those investors who have considerable exposure to equities, it's not a bad idea to have some holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds to serve as a type of buffer, a type of insurance policy in the event stocks do drop sharply in price. - John Lonski Quotes

It was a very important lesson for investors to learn. For those investors who have considerable exposure to equities, it's not a bad idea to have some holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds to serve as a type of buffer, a type of insurance policy in the event stocks do drop sharply in price.

(The numbers) tell us that manufacturing is in pretty good shape, - John Lonski Quotes

(The numbers) tell us that manufacturing is in pretty good shape,

If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling policy-makers that there is no compelling need for a higher federal funds rate. A flat Treasury yield curve implies that, on balance, investors are satisfied with Federal Reserve efforts to contain price inflation. - John Lonski Quotes

If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling policy-makers that there is no compelling need for a higher federal funds rate. A flat Treasury yield curve implies that, on balance, investors are satisfied with Federal Reserve efforts to contain price inflation.

I think the market's getting geared up for that release. Many are looking for a large increase (in non-farm payrolls). - John Lonski Quotes

I think the market's getting geared up for that release. Many are looking for a large increase (in non-farm payrolls).

Investors do not believe that the Brazilian crisis will spread up to Mexico and thereby present a very real danger to the U.S.. - John Lonski Quotes

Investors do not believe that the Brazilian crisis will spread up to Mexico and thereby present a very real danger to the U.S..

The earlier talk of housing entering into a decline was far too premature. - John Lonski Quotes

The earlier talk of housing entering into a decline was far too premature.

The question is whether they go any deeper. - John Lonski Quotes

The question is whether they go any deeper.

We have hard evidence that there has been a pullback of foreign buying of U.S .Treasury securities, ... But more importantly, faster economic growth abroad will be to the benefit of the U.S. economy, will provide a boost to corporate revenues, perhaps add to the demand for labor, which can only increase inflation risks and puts more pressure on the Fed to eventually hike interest rates again. - John Lonski Quotes

We have hard evidence that there has been a pullback of foreign buying of U.S .Treasury securities, ... But more importantly, faster economic growth abroad will be to the benefit of the U.S. economy, will provide a boost to corporate revenues, perhaps add to the demand for labor, which can only increase inflation risks and puts more pressure on the Fed to eventually hike interest rates again.

The Fed's not finished. More rate hikes loom. - John Lonski Quotes

The Fed's not finished. More rate hikes loom.

We have gone from a situation where investors were on the verge of a nervous breakdown to a level of high anxiety. - John Lonski Quotes

We have gone from a situation where investors were on the verge of a nervous breakdown to a level of high anxiety.

The dip by the core PPI brings attention to how inflation is not an issue in the credit market and it's the least of the Federal Reserve's worries. - John Lonski Quotes

The dip by the core PPI brings attention to how inflation is not an issue in the credit market and it's the least of the Federal Reserve's worries.

You look at this and all you can say is, yes, monetary policy remains accommodative, it's not even neutral yet, and interest rates are too low in that they still fuel the speculative purchase of housing activity. - John Lonski Quotes

You look at this and all you can say is, yes, monetary policy remains accommodative, it's not even neutral yet, and interest rates are too low in that they still fuel the speculative purchase of housing activity.

You look at this and all you can say is, yes, monetary policy remains accommodative, it's not even neutral yet, and interest rates are too low in that they still fuel the speculative purchase of housing activity, - John Lonski Quotes

You look at this and all you can say is, yes, monetary policy remains accommodative, it's not even neutral yet, and interest rates are too low in that they still fuel the speculative purchase of housing activity,

We also had an outright inversion in 1998 and there was no recession until 2001, although I would add there was a deterioration in corporate financial health that got underway in 1998 that didn't really end until 2002. - John Lonski Quotes

We also had an outright inversion in 1998 and there was no recession until 2001, although I would add there was a deterioration in corporate financial health that got underway in 1998 that didn't really end until 2002.

The Dow breaking above 11,000 might be a nice holiday present for the U.S. economy in that it should boost the confidence of both consumers and businesses and lay the basis for a livelier-than-expected 2006. - John Lonski Quotes

The Dow breaking above 11,000 might be a nice holiday present for the U.S. economy in that it should boost the confidence of both consumers and businesses and lay the basis for a livelier-than-expected 2006.

Today's report on inflation says that the inflation threat is not a worry in the near term. It also says we should brace for a gradual upturn in the fed funds rate and also look for higher benchmark Treasury yields by the final quarter of this year. - John Lonski Quotes

Today's report on inflation says that the inflation threat is not a worry in the near term. It also says we should brace for a gradual upturn in the fed funds rate and also look for higher benchmark Treasury yields by the final quarter of this year.

One would have argued that the reduction in supply would have made the bidding stronger. - John Lonski Quotes

One would have argued that the reduction in supply would have made the bidding stronger.

No quick recovery. It's going to be a struggle for the U.S. economy to get back up to its trend rate of growth. - John Lonski Quotes

No quick recovery. It's going to be a struggle for the U.S. economy to get back up to its trend rate of growth.

That's a prime example of where higher energy prices can rein in core [non-energy] inflation. - John Lonski Quotes

That's a prime example of where higher energy prices can rein in core [non-energy] inflation.

The decline by the PPI overall and the dip by the core PPI is very much consistent with the general absence of inflation risks, - John Lonski Quotes

The decline by the PPI overall and the dip by the core PPI is very much consistent with the general absence of inflation risks,

The decline by the PPI overall and the dip by the core PPI is very much consistent with the general absence of inflation risks. - John Lonski Quotes

The decline by the PPI overall and the dip by the core PPI is very much consistent with the general absence of inflation risks.

The dip by the core PPI brings attention to how inflation is not an issue in the credit market and it's the least of the Federal Reserve's worries, - John Lonski Quotes

The dip by the core PPI brings attention to how inflation is not an issue in the credit market and it's the least of the Federal Reserve's worries,

We have early indications that the tax rebates are having a lift on consumer spending, ... The sense is that the tax rebates, to the degree that they provide a lift to spending, will further the process of inventory depletion. - John Lonski Quotes

We have early indications that the tax rebates are having a lift on consumer spending, ... The sense is that the tax rebates, to the degree that they provide a lift to spending, will further the process of inventory depletion.

The jump in the unemployment rate will be a headline catcher ... telling consumers that perhaps the economy is weakening, which in turn could breed caution during this very critical holiday season. - John Lonski Quotes

The jump in the unemployment rate will be a headline catcher ... telling consumers that perhaps the economy is weakening, which in turn could breed caution during this very critical holiday season.

The credit market right now is bracing for some bad news, ... Yields should continue heading higher until the U.S. economy slackens appreciably. - John Lonski Quotes

The credit market right now is bracing for some bad news, ... Yields should continue heading higher until the U.S. economy slackens appreciably.

We have to be braced for a gradual upturn in the federal funds rate. - John Lonski Quotes

We have to be braced for a gradual upturn in the federal funds rate.

My sense is that after a lull, investors are more than willing to absorb new bond issues, be they from U.S. corporations or from the U.S. Treasury. - John Lonski Quotes

My sense is that after a lull, investors are more than willing to absorb new bond issues, be they from U.S. corporations or from the U.S. Treasury.

That may give the economy a chance to shift into higher gear. - John Lonski Quotes

That may give the economy a chance to shift into higher gear.

Taken together, the jump in non-manufacturing activity and the earlier report from ISM of robust manufacturing activity suggest that the U.S. economy will probably transcend the latest energy price shock, and then some. - John Lonski Quotes

Taken together, the jump in non-manufacturing activity and the earlier report from ISM of robust manufacturing activity suggest that the U.S. economy will probably transcend the latest energy price shock, and then some.

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